Sunday, October 21, 2007

regulators and confusion

why is India an emerging market..we now know the answer to is mostly because the regulators are prone to knee jerk actions and reactions and often confused about thier roles and identities..why else would Sebi who is the capital market regulator intervene with policy changes to prevent dollar inflows? i thought that was clearly RBIs role..
the markets shut down on the basis of these ill conceived policies announced by Sebi, and the finance minister appears on on cnbc to soothe ruffled feathers and claims that FIIS are can the FIIs buy when the markets are shut? is there an unregulated offshore market in Indian securities that none of us are aware of?
what is this confusion on P notes? whose interests are being protected? every investor knows that p notes are part and parcel of the market and in fact fortunes have been made on the presumption that inflows based on p notes investments will close or regulate the tap and you run the risk of shaking confidence levels in the market..precisely whats going on in the market right now.
nothing has changed on the fundamental india story..what has changed is that SEBI has shifted the goal posts, and created somewhat of a floating goal post where investors are no longer sure if what they invest may end up being a self goal..
funny times these..

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

While the markets continue to fox professionals and those pundits on CNBC things happen and money is made or lost based mostly on conviction, analysis and as all investors know, but wont admit, dollops of luck. I follow the Indian and the U.S markets and it never fails to amaze me how what you hear with total conviction on CNBC is often complete trite and very often driven by self interest and the hopes of the speaker.
The Indian market today was a yo yo and after close to a 100 point fall in the NIFTY all the experts on CNBC were full of "I told you so, get out while you can" type of advice to the 'retail' investor, only to have mud all over their faces a half hour later when the market added close to a 100 points, when they all had to backtrack with alacrity.
My advice ? Stay in in if you got in early enough, else stay out. Thats for the Indian market. As for the U.S. a lot of things could go wrong in the financials space, but good tech, aapl, syna, goog, csco , who are leaders in their own areas and have great brands and lots of cash on the ablance sheet,seem good bets still to me.
Let me also caution anyone who reads this blog and decides to punt..I am not an expert, but as likely to be right as anyone you are currently hearing or reading..